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INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH DIVISION
RESTRICTED Q3 2025 ID: MIG-8842-SECURE

Q3 2025 Semiconductor Supply Chain Analysis

While global yield rates for 3nm logic chips have nominally stabilized, our on-the-ground analysis of the Hsinchu Science Park facility reveals a critical, unreported divergence. Specifically, the ASML EUV lithography output for September has dropped by 14% due to a specific supply bottleneck in

the photo-resist chemical supply chain originating from the Osaka plant. This data point is critical for forecasting Q4 revenue adjustments. Without this specific coefficient, all current market models are overestimating NVIDIA's delivery capacity by approximately 2.3 million units.

Furthermore, the Arizona expansion project has hit a new regulatory snag regarding water table usage rights, effectively delaying the Phase 2 rollout by another 8 months.

Financial Impact: We are adjusting our price target for TSM down by 12% and advising an immediate hedge position on...





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